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Model
of Surveillance of California Tobacco Control Policies
Principal
Investigator: Harold D. Holder, Ph.D.
Computer
models can help state and local policymakers make the best
decisions. A computer model analyzes many different types
of data. It also applies the results of scientific studies
to that data. The resulting model can predict the effect of
a change in policy. The SimSmoke computer model predicts smoking
rates and deaths for the United States. SimSmoke also predicts
how changes in law, medicine, taxes or mass media will affect
smoking and death rates.
This
project will create a California SimSmoke computer model.
California has a very diverse population. The state is also
a leader in policies to reduce the harm caused by tobacco.
For these two reasons, California is an ideal place to develop
a state-level computer model.
California
SimSmoke will track smokers by age, gender, and racial/ethnic
group. The model will predict smoking and smoking related
deaths based on population subgroups and public policies in
effect. The model will include the effects of policies such
as taxes, mass media, clean air laws, treatment to stop smoking,
and youth access to tobacco.
Californians
could use this computer model to see how different policies
affect smoking, which in turn affect smoking-related deaths.
The model examines the effect of past policies and develops
predictions on the effect of future policies. They would be
able to monitor the value of each policy, and show how past
policies have been effective and where they have not been
effective. They could then use the model to shape future policies.
Californians
could even see the effect of policies on the smoking rates
and deaths to specific age, gender and racial/ethnic groups.
They could discern which age groups and racial groups are
currently being affected by tobacco control policies in the
state of California, and determine policies to improve the
health of these groups.
Developing
this computer model will help leaders understand about past
policies and make better decisions about future policies.
They could also see how the effect of policies depends on
the way in which they are implemented, and the other policies
already in place. Better decisions can improve health for
everyone.
Proceed
to PRC CD Presentation featuring Dr. Harold D. Holder.
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