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Ecosystem
Models of Alcohol-Related Behavior
(Contract with NIAAA)
Principal
Investigator: Paul J. Gruenewald, Ph.D.
The
primary objective of this project is to develop the basis
for successfully modeling community ecologies that support
alcohol-related violence. The challenges to the researchers
are to (1) create adequate systems models that can capture
the primary community structures and relationships that support
alcohol-related violence, and (2) use these models to rationally
test control strategies that have the potential to moderate
or reduce alcohol-related violence. In order to accomplish
these goals, the project will (1) develop two competing yet
complementary ecological models of the distribution of alcohol-related
violence in community settings, specifically mean field (MF)
and network (NW) models, (2) design, acquire and maintain
data sets suitable to test the relative merits of these models,
(3) provide statistical procedures by which tests of the performance
of these models may be accomplished, and (4) perform sensitivity
analyses to distinguish qualitative predictions between models.
The
two modeling approaches capture two unique dynamical facets
of human interactions related to alcohol and violence, namely
that rates and spatial distributions of alcohol-related violence
change over both time and space. As a “seedling”
project, the primary accomplishment of this work will be to
provide supports and guidance to future modeling efforts.
In this respect, the key contribution of this project will
be to mate community-based ecological data on alcohol-related
violence to spatial ecological models at a scale appropriate
to the development of new and unique environmental control
strategies. Results of this work will set the basis for future
detailed efforts to represent, and ultimately intervene in,
community systems that support alcohol-related violence.
Proceed
to PRC CD Presentation featuring Dr. Paul J. Gruenewald
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